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SKRA Częstochowa vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg — II Liga - East 2019

SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
8/25/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 6Stadion ul. Loretańska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa40%
×Draw25%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKRA Częstochowa
1.44
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 34 away

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa
1.37
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.71

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa
0.95
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.50

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par
Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw
65%
SKRA Częstochowa or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
75%
Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
60%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
19%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
76%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
42%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
18%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
74%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
38%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
53%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.37 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.71 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more
40%
level
25%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
35%

SKRA Częstochowa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: SKRA Częstochowa 1–0 Kotwica Kołobrzeg

SKRA Częstochowa beat Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1-0 in II Liga - East on August 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Loretańska in Częstochowa.