Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs SKRA Częstochowa — II Liga - East 2019

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
3/10/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 23Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg51%
×Draw26%
SKRA Częstochowa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.53
SKRA Częstochowa
0.92

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 66% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 61 away

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.41
SKRA Częstochowa
1.05

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.79
SKRA Częstochowa
1.66

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par
SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw
77%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg or SKRA Częstochowa
74%
Draw or SKRA Częstochowa
49%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
27%
SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
78%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
45%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
20%
SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
60%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
23%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
69%
SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.41 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.53

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.05 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
51%
level
26%
SKRA Częstochowa scores more
23%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Kotwica Kołobrzeg 0–1 SKRA Częstochowa

SKRA Częstochowa beat Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1-0 in II Liga - East on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka in Kołobrzeg.