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SKRA Częstochowa vs Hutnik Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hutnik Kraków
Hutnik Kraków
11/29/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 18Stadion ul. Loretańska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa50%
×Draw26%
Hutnik Kraków25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKRA Częstochowa
1.52
Hutnik Kraków
0.99

SKRA Częstochowa creates 54% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 102 away

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa
1.37
Hutnik Kraków
1.04

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa
0.95
Hutnik Kraków
1.67

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par
Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Hutnik Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw
75%
SKRA Częstochowa or Hutnik Kraków
74%
Draw or Hutnik Kraków
50%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
25%
Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
78%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
45%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
20%
Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals
63%
Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals
26%
Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
67%
Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Hutnik Kraków away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.67 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.37 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.04 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more
50%
level
26%
Hutnik Kraków scores more
25%

SKRA Częstochowa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: SKRA Częstochowa 1–2 Hutnik Kraków

Hutnik Kraków beat SKRA Częstochowa 2-1 in II Liga - East on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Loretańska in Częstochowa.