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Hutnik Kraków vs SKRA Częstochowa — II Liga - East 2019

Hutnik Kraków
Hutnik Kraków
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
7/22/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 1Stadion Suche Stawy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Hutnik Kraków47%
×Draw25%
SKRA Częstochowa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hutnik Kraków
1.60
SKRA Częstochowa
1.19

Hutnik Kraków creates 34% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 61 away

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków
1.55
SKRA Częstochowa
1.05

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków
1.32
SKRA Częstochowa
1.66

finishing

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par
SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków or draw
72%
Hutnik Kraków or SKRA Częstochowa
75%
Draw or SKRA Częstochowa
53%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+
24%
SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals
80%
Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals
47%
Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals
22%
SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
70%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
33%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)
62%
SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.32 · 103 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.55 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.05 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hutnik Kraków scores more
47%
level
25%
SKRA Częstochowa scores more
28%

Hutnik Kraków at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hutnik Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Hutnik Kraków 3–0 SKRA Częstochowa

Hutnik Kraków beat SKRA Częstochowa 3-0 in II Liga - East on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Suche Stawy in Kraków.