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SKRA Częstochowa vs Goczałkowice Zdrój — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
2/19/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa50%
×Draw24%
Goczałkowice Zdrój26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKRA Częstochowa
1.70
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.15

SKRA Częstochowa creates 48% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa
1.60
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.30

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa
1.00
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.80

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par
Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw
74%
SKRA Częstochowa or Goczałkowice Zdrój
76%
Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój
50%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
27%
Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
82%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
51%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
24%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
68%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
32%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
66%
Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.60 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.70

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.30 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more
50%
level
24%
Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
26%

SKRA Częstochowa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SKRA Częstochowa vs Goczałkowice Zdrój

SKRA Częstochowa beat Goczałkowice Zdrój 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 19, 2025.