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Goczałkowice Zdrój vs SKRA Częstochowa — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
11/8/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 16Panatoni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój43%
×Draw24%
SKRA Częstochowa33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.68
SKRA Częstochowa
1.44

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 17% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

creates per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.59
SKRA Częstochowa
1.76

allows per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.13
SKRA Częstochowa
1.76

finishing

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par
SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goczałkowice Zdrój ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Goczałkowice Zdrój or draw
67%
Goczałkowice Zdrój or SKRA Częstochowa
76%
Draw or SKRA Częstochowa
57%

Winning margin

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
22%
SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
81%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
50%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
24%
SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
76%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
42%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
57%
SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goczałkowice Zdrój at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.59 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.68

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.76 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
43%
level
24%
SKRA Częstochowa scores more
33%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Goczałkowice Zdrój 1–1 SKRA Częstochowa

Goczałkowice Zdrój and SKRA Częstochowa drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Panatoni Arena in Goczałkowice-Zdrój.