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SKRA Częstochowa vs Chojniczanka Chojnice — I Liga 2018

SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
7/22/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 2Stadion GKS-u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa38%
×Draw27%
Chojniczanka Chojnice35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKRA Częstochowa
1.30
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa
0.74
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.08

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa
1.38
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.86

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par
Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw
65%
SKRA Częstochowa or Chojniczanka Chojnice
73%
Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice
62%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
17%
Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
73%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
37%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
14%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
71%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
35%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
52%
Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 0.74 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.30

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.08 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more
38%
level
27%
Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
35%

SKRA Częstochowa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: SKRA Częstochowa 2–0 Chojniczanka Chojnice

SKRA Częstochowa beat Chojniczanka Chojnice 2-0 in I Liga on July 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion GKS-u in Bełchatów.