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Chojniczanka Chojnice vs SKRA Częstochowa — II Liga - East 2019

Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
9/8/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 8Stadion Miejski Chojnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice55%
×Draw23%
SKRA Częstochowa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.78
SKRA Częstochowa
1.02

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 75% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 61 away

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.91
SKRA Częstochowa
1.05

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
0.99
SKRA Częstochowa
1.66

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par
SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw
78%
Chojniczanka Chojnice or SKRA Częstochowa
77%
Draw or SKRA Częstochowa
45%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
31%
SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
83%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
53%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
26%
SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
64%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
27%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
72%
SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.91 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.78

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.05 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
55%
level
23%
SKRA Częstochowa scores more
22%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Chojniczanka Chojnice 0–0 SKRA Częstochowa

Chojniczanka Chojnice and SKRA Częstochowa drew 0-0 in II Liga - East on September 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Chojnice in Chojnice.