SKRA Częstochowa 3–2 Bytovia Bytów: Result & Stats

SKRA Częstochowa

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bytovia Bytów

10/5/2019

II Liga - East · Round 12Stadion ul. Loretańska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa50%

×Draw25%

Bytovia Bytów25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SKRA CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchBytovia Bytów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.06

SKRA Częstochowa

1.62

Bytovia Bytów

1.06

SKRA Częstochowa creates 53% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 35 away

1.37

creates per match

1.17

0.95

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa

1.37

Bytovia Bytów

1.17

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa

0.95

Bytovia Bytów

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Bytovia Bytów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw

75%

SKRA Częstochowa or Bytovia Bytów

75%

Draw or Bytovia Bytów

50%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+

26%

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals

80%

SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals

48%

SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals

22%

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

65%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

29%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)

67%

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.37 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.62

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more

50%

level

25%

Bytovia Bytów scores more

25%

SKRA Częstochowa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff