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Bytovia Bytów vs SKRA Częstochowa — II Liga - East 2019

Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
7/1/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 29Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bytovia Bytów47%
×Draw25%
SKRA Częstochowa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bytovia Bytów
1.61
SKRA Częstochowa
1.21

Bytovia Bytów creates 33% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 61 away

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.57
SKRA Częstochowa
1.05

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.37
SKRA Częstochowa
1.66

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par
SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw
71%
Bytovia Bytów or SKRA Częstochowa
75%
Draw or SKRA Częstochowa
53%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
24%
SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
80%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
48%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
22%
SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
70%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
34%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
62%
SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.57 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.61

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.05 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more
47%
level
25%
SKRA Częstochowa scores more
29%

Bytovia Bytów at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bytovia Bytów vs SKRA Częstochowa

Bytovia Bytów and SKRA Częstochowa drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on July 1, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Bytów.