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Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
CANC
13:00
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
2/23/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Skövde AIK59%
×Draw21%
Ostersunds FK21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skövde AIK
2.14
Ostersunds FK
1.19

Skövde AIK creates 80% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Skövde AIK
3.60
Ostersunds FK
0.17

allows per match

Skövde AIK
2.20
Ostersunds FK
0.67

finishing

Skövde AIK+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skövde AIK ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Skövde AIK or draw
79%
Skövde AIK or Ostersunds FK
79%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
41%

Winning margin

Skövde AIK wins by 2+
36%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Skövde AIK 1+ goals
88%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
63%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
36%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
70%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
33%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
74%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skövde AIK at home — creates 3.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 0.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skövde AIK attack 3.60 + Ostersunds FK defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.14

Ostersunds FK attack 0.17 + Skövde AIK defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Skövde AIK scores more
59%
level
21%
Ostersunds FK scores more
21%

Skövde AIK at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Skövde AIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Skövde AIK host Ostersunds FK

February 23, 2024: Skövde AIK take on Ostersunds FK in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.