Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ostersunds FK vs Skövde AIK — Superettan 2026

Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
4/24/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 4Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Ostersunds FK50%
×Draw23%
Skövde AIK27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostersunds FK
1.79
Skövde AIK
1.25

Ostersunds FK creates 43% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 47 away

creates per match

Ostersunds FK
1.57
Skövde AIK
1.11

allows per match

Ostersunds FK
1.38
Skövde AIK
2.00

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par
Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Skövde AIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw
73%
Ostersunds FK or Skövde AIK
77%
Draw or Skövde AIK
50%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
27%
Skövde AIK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
83%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
53%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
26%
Skövde AIK 1+ goals
71%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
36%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
65%
Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.38 · 68 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.57 + Skövde AIK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Skövde AIK attack 1.11 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more
50%
level
23%
Skövde AIK scores more
27%

Ostersunds FK at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Ostersunds FK 2–1 Skövde AIK

Ostersunds FK beat Skövde AIK 2-1 in Superettan on April 24, 2023.

The match was played at Jämtkraft Arena in Östersund.