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Skövde AIK vs Halmstad — Superettan 2018

Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Halmstad
Halmstad
5/9/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 6Södermalms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Skövde AIK33%
×Draw26%
Halmstad41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skövde AIK
1.22
Halmstad
1.41

Halmstad creates 16% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 60 away

creates per match

Skövde AIK
1.36
Halmstad
1.73

allows per match

Skövde AIK
1.09
Halmstad
1.07

finishing

Skövde AIK+0.00on par
Halmstad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skövde AIK ↓

Halmstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Skövde AIK or draw
59%
Skövde AIK or Halmstad
74%
Draw or Halmstad
67%

Winning margin

Skövde AIK wins by 2+
14%
Halmstad wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Skövde AIK 1+ goals
70%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
34%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
12%
Halmstad 1+ goals
76%
Halmstad 2+ goals
41%
Halmstad 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
44%
Halmstad (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skövde AIK at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.09 · 47 matches

Halmstad away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skövde AIK attack 1.36 + Halmstad defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Halmstad attack 1.73 + Skövde AIK defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Skövde AIK scores more
33%
level
26%
Halmstad scores more
41%

Halmstad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skövde AIK vs Halmstad

Halmstad beat Skövde AIK 3-1 in Superettan on May 9, 2022.

The match was played at Södermalms IP in Skövde.