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Halmstad vs Skövde AIK — Superettan 2018

Halmstad
Halmstad
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
9/4/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 22Örjans Vall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Halmstad57%
×Draw22%
Skövde AIK20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halmstad
1.90
Skövde AIK
1.04

Halmstad creates 83% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 47 away

creates per match

Halmstad
1.80
Skövde AIK
1.11

allows per match

Halmstad
0.97
Skövde AIK
2.00

finishing

Halmstad+0.00on par
Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Skövde AIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw
80%
Halmstad or Skövde AIK
78%
Draw or Skövde AIK
43%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+
33%
Skövde AIK wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals
85%
Halmstad 2+ goals
56%
Halmstad 3+ goals
29%
Skövde AIK 1+ goals
65%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
28%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)
74%
Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.97 · 60 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.80 + Skövde AIK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Skövde AIK attack 1.11 + Halmstad defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Halmstad scores more
57%
level
22%
Skövde AIK scores more
20%

Halmstad at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Halmstad 3–2 Skövde AIK

Halmstad beat Skövde AIK 3-2 in Superettan on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Örjans Vall in Halmstad.