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Skövde AIK vs Dalkurd FF — Superettan 2018

Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
11/5/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 30Södermalms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Skövde AIK48%
×Draw26%
Dalkurd FF26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skövde AIK
1.52
Dalkurd FF
1.04

Skövde AIK creates 46% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 49 away

creates per match

Skövde AIK
1.36
Dalkurd FF
0.98

allows per match

Skövde AIK
1.09
Dalkurd FF
1.67

finishing

Skövde AIK+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skövde AIK ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Skövde AIK or draw
74%
Skövde AIK or Dalkurd FF
74%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
52%

Winning margin

Skövde AIK wins by 2+
24%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Skövde AIK 1+ goals
78%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
45%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
20%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
65%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
28%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
65%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skövde AIK at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.09 · 47 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skövde AIK attack 1.36 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dalkurd FF attack 0.98 + Skövde AIK defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Skövde AIK scores more
48%
level
26%
Dalkurd FF scores more
26%

Skövde AIK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Skövde AIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skövde AIK vs Dalkurd FF

Skövde AIK and Dalkurd FF drew 2-2 in Superettan on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Södermalms IP in Skövde.