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Dalkurd FF vs Skövde AIK — Superettan 2018

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
5/13/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 7Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Dalkurd FF49%
×Draw23%
Skövde AIK28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.76
Skövde AIK
1.27

Dalkurd FF creates 39% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 47 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.52
Skövde AIK
1.11

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
1.44
Skövde AIK
2.00

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Skövde AIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
72%
Dalkurd FF or Skövde AIK
77%
Draw or Skövde AIK
51%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
26%
Skövde AIK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
83%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
52%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
26%
Skövde AIK 1+ goals
72%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
36%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
64%
Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.52 + Skövde AIK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

Skövde AIK attack 1.11 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
49%
level
23%
Skövde AIK scores more
28%

Dalkurd FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalkurd FF vs Skövde AIK

Dalkurd FF beat Skövde AIK 3-1 in Superettan on May 13, 2022.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.