Skopje 1–1 Kozuv Gevgelija: Result & Stats

Skopje

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kozuv Gevgelija

9/25/2024

Second League · Round 4Stadion Železarnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Skopje56%

×Draw25%

Kozuv Gevgelija19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkopjeExpected goals in this matchKozuv Gevgelija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.79

Skopje

1.59

Kozuv Gevgelija

0.79

Skopje creates 101% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 81 away

1.89

creates per match

0.89

0.70

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Skopje

1.89

Kozuv Gevgelija

0.89

allows per match

Skopje

0.70

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skopje+0.00on par

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skopje ↓

Kozuv Gevgelija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Skopje or draw

81%

Skopje or Kozuv Gevgelija

75%

Draw or Kozuv Gevgelija

44%

Winning margin

Skopje wins by 2+

30%

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Skopje 1+ goals

80%

Skopje 2+ goals

47%

Skopje 3+ goals

21%

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals

55%

Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals

19%

Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Skopje (draw refunded)

75%

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skopje at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.70 · 66 matches

Kozuv Gevgelija away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skopje attack 1.89 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.59

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 0.89 + Skopje defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Skopje scores more

56%

level

25%

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more

19%

Skopje at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff