Kozuv Gevgelija 0–1 Skopje: Result & Stats

Kozuv Gevgelija

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Skopje

3/4/2025

Second League · Round 19Stadion FK Kožuf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Kozuv Gevgelija43%

×Draw27%

Skopje30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kozuv GevgelijaExpected goals in this matchSkopje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.11

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.39

Skopje

1.11

Kozuv Gevgelija creates 25% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 66 away

1.71

creates per match

1.15

1.07

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.71

Skopje

1.15

allows per match

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.07

Skopje

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par

Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozuv Gevgelija ↓

Skopje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kozuv Gevgelija or draw

70%

Kozuv Gevgelija or Skopje

73%

Draw or Skopje

57%

Winning margin

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+

20%

Skopje wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals

75%

Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals

40%

Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals

16%

Skopje 1+ goals

67%

Skopje 2+ goals

30%

Skopje 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)

59%

Skopje (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozuv Gevgelija at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Skopje away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 1.71 + Skopje defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Skopje attack 1.15 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more

43%

level

27%

Skopje scores more

30%

Kozuv Gevgelija at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kozuv Gevgelija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff