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Škofja Loka vs Postojna — 3. SNL - West 2020

Škofja Loka
Škofja Loka
FT
1 – 1
Postojna
Postojna
9/5/20203. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 4Štadion Puštal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Škofja Loka48%
×Draw24%
Postojna28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Škofja Loka
1.72
Postojna
1.27

Škofja Loka creates 35% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 9 away

creates per match

Škofja Loka
1.55
Postojna
0.78

allows per match

Škofja Loka
1.77
Postojna
1.89

finishing

Škofja Loka+0.00on par
Postojna+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Škofja Loka ↓

Postojna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Škofja Loka or draw
72%
Škofja Loka or Postojna
76%
Draw or Postojna
52%

Winning margin

Škofja Loka wins by 2+
26%
Postojna wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Škofja Loka 1+ goals
82%
Škofja Loka 2+ goals
51%
Škofja Loka 3+ goals
25%
Postojna 1+ goals
72%
Postojna 2+ goals
36%
Postojna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Škofja Loka (draw refunded)
63%
Postojna (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Škofja Loka at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

Postojna away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Škofja Loka attack 1.55 + Postojna defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.72

Postojna attack 0.78 + Škofja Loka defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Škofja Loka scores more
48%
level
24%
Postojna scores more
28%

Škofja Loka at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Škofja Loka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Škofja Loka vs Postojna

Škofja Loka and Postojna drew 1-1 in 3. SNL - West on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Štadion Puštal in Škofja Loka.