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Postojna vs Škofja Loka — 3. SNL - West 2020

Postojna
Postojna
CANC
14:00
Škofja Loka
Škofja Loka
3/27/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Postojna51%
×Draw22%
Škofja Loka27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Postojna
1.90
Škofja Loka
1.32

Postojna creates 44% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

creates per match

Postojna
1.80
Škofja Loka
1.04

allows per match

Postojna
1.60
Škofja Loka
2.00

finishing

Postojna+0.00on par
Škofja Loka+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Postojna ↓

Škofja Loka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Postojna or draw
73%
Postojna or Škofja Loka
78%
Draw or Škofja Loka
49%

Winning margin

Postojna wins by 2+
29%
Škofja Loka wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Postojna 1+ goals
85%
Postojna 2+ goals
56%
Postojna 3+ goals
29%
Škofja Loka 1+ goals
73%
Škofja Loka 2+ goals
38%
Škofja Loka 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Postojna (draw refunded)
66%
Škofja Loka (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Postojna at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Škofja Loka away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Postojna attack 1.80 + Škofja Loka defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Škofja Loka attack 1.04 + Postojna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Postojna scores more
51%
level
22%
Škofja Loka scores more
27%

Postojna at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Postojna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Postojna face Škofja Loka (3. SNL - West)

3. SNL - West returns with Postojna hosting Škofja Loka. Match starts March 27, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.