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Skjervøy vs Gjelleråsen — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Skjervøy
Skjervøy
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
8/21/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 17Lerøy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skjervøy34%
×Draw21%
Gjelleråsen45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skjervøy
1.81
Gjelleråsen
2.10

Gjelleråsen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

creates per match

Skjervøy
2.24
Gjelleråsen
2.77

allows per match

Skjervøy
1.44
Gjelleråsen
1.38

finishing

Skjervøy+0.00on par
Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skjervøy ↓

Gjelleråsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Skjervøy or draw
55%
Skjervøy or Gjelleråsen
79%
Draw or Gjelleråsen
66%

Winning margin

Skjervøy wins by 2+
17%
Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Skjervøy 1+ goals
84%
Skjervøy 2+ goals
54%
Skjervøy 3+ goals
27%
Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
88%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
62%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Skjervøy (draw refunded)
43%
Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skjervøy at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 2.77, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skjervøy attack 2.24 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.81

Gjelleråsen attack 2.77 + Skjervøy defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Skjervøy scores more
34%
level
21%
Gjelleråsen scores more
45%

Gjelleråsen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skjervøy vs Gjelleråsen

Gjelleråsen beat Skjervøy 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Lerøy Stadion in Skjervøy.