Gjelleråsen 9–0 Skjervøy: Result & Stats

Gjelleråsen

FT

9 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Skjervøy

S. Bakken 86'

S. Latkovic 73', 55', 40', 18'

E. Akvag 64'

T. J. Bright-Taylor 59'

S. Dalberg Aasmundstad 52'

E. Steine 32'

5/29/2022

3. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 8Li kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gjelleråsen59%

×Draw18%

Skjervøy23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GjelleråsenExpected goals in this matchSkjervøy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

1.75

Gjelleråsen

2.83

Skjervøy

1.75

Gjelleråsen creates 62% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

3.15

creates per match

1.65

1.85

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Gjelleråsen

3.15

Skjervøy

1.65

allows per match

Gjelleråsen

1.85

Skjervøy

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Skjervøy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjelleråsen ↓

Skjervøy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Gjelleråsen or draw

77%

Gjelleråsen or Skjervøy

82%

Draw or Skjervøy

41%

Winning margin

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+

40%

Skjervøy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals

94%

Gjelleråsen 2+ goals

77%

Gjelleråsen 3+ goals

53%

Skjervøy 1+ goals

83%

Skjervøy 2+ goals

52%

Skjervøy 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)

72%

Skjervøy (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjelleråsen at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Skjervøy away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjelleråsen attack 3.15 + Skjervøy defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.83

Skjervøy attack 1.65 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gjelleråsen scores more

59%

level

18%

Skjervøy scores more

23%

Gjelleråsen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

S. Latkovic

32'

E. Steine

40'

S. Latkovic

52'

S. Dalberg Aasmundstad

55'

S. Latkovic

59'

T. J. Bright-Taylor

64'

E. Akvag

73'

S. Latkovic

86'

S. Bakken

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff