Skjervøy 0–3 Fløya: Result & Stats

Skjervøy

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Fløya

T. J. Isaksen 63'

S. Andersen 41'

S. Fitzgerald 25'

5/3/2025

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 5Lerøy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skjervøy43%

×Draw20%

Fløya37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkjervøyExpected goals in this matchFløya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

2.08

Skjervøy

2.27

Fløya

2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.77

creates per match

2.38

1.77

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Skjervøy

1.77

Fløya

2.38

allows per match

Skjervøy

1.77

Fløya

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skjervøy+0.00on par

Fløya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skjervøy ↓

Fløya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Skjervøy or draw

63%

Skjervøy or Fløya

80%

Draw or Fløya

57%

Winning margin

Skjervøy wins by 2+

25%

Fløya wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Skjervøy 1+ goals

90%

Skjervøy 2+ goals

66%

Skjervøy 3+ goals

39%

Fløya 1+ goals

87%

Fløya 2+ goals

61%

Fløya 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Skjervøy (draw refunded)

54%

Fløya (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skjervøy at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Fløya away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skjervøy attack 1.77 + Fløya defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.27

Fløya attack 2.38 + Skjervøy defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Skjervøy scores more

43%

level

20%

Fløya scores more

37%

Skjervøy at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Skjervøy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

S. Fitzgerald

41'

S. Andersen

63'

T. J. Isaksen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff