Fløya 4–1 Skjervøy: Result & Stats

Fløya

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Skjervøy

D. Zala 78'

I. Adolfsen 71'

L. L. Bendiksen 66'

S. Fitzgerald 36'

T. Bjorgve 75'

9/26/2024

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 23Fløyabanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Fløya62%

×Draw18%

Skjervøy20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FløyaExpected goals in this matchSkjervøy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

1.46

Fløya

2.62

Skjervøy

1.46

Fløya creates 79% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 46 away

2.74

creates per match

1.65

1.28

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Fløya

2.74

Skjervøy

1.65

allows per match

Fløya

1.28

Skjervøy

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fløya+0.00on par

Skjervøy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fløya ↓

Skjervøy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Fløya or draw

80%

Fløya or Skjervøy

82%

Draw or Skjervøy

38%

Winning margin

Fløya wins by 2+

41%

Skjervøy wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fløya 1+ goals

93%

Fløya 2+ goals

73%

Fløya 3+ goals

48%

Skjervøy 1+ goals

77%

Skjervøy 2+ goals

43%

Skjervøy 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Fløya (draw refunded)

75%

Skjervøy (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fløya at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.28 · 39 matches

Skjervøy away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fløya attack 2.74 + Skjervøy defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.62

Skjervøy attack 1.65 + Fløya defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Fløya scores more

62%

level

18%

Skjervøy scores more

20%

Fløya at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Fløya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

S. Fitzgerald

66'

L. L. Bendiksen

71'

I. Adolfsen

75'

T. Bjorgve

78'

D. Zala

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff