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Skive vs Odder — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Skive
Skive
FT
2 – 1
Odder
Odder
3/1/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Egeris Kunstgræsbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Skive45%
×Draw23%
Odder32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skive
1.77
Odder
1.47

Skive creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Skive
2.14
Odder
1.80

allows per match

Skive
1.14
Odder
1.40

finishing

Skive+0.00on par
Odder+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skive ↓

Odder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Skive or draw
68%
Skive or Odder
77%
Draw or Odder
55%

Winning margin

Skive wins by 2+
24%
Odder wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Skive 1+ goals
83%
Skive 2+ goals
53%
Skive 3+ goals
26%
Odder 1+ goals
77%
Odder 2+ goals
43%
Odder 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Skive (draw refunded)
58%
Odder (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skive at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Odder away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skive attack 2.14 + Odder defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.77

Odder attack 1.80 + Skive defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Skive scores more
45%
level
23%
Odder scores more
32%

Skive at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Skive will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Skive
Odder
A. Jensen
Manager: A. Jensen
J. Eichner
Manager: J. Eichner

Match Recap: Skive vs Odder

Skive beat Odder 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Egeris Kunstgræsbane in Skive.