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Skive vs Odder — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Skive
Skive
FT
3 – 2
Odder
Odder
9/7/20182nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 7Hancock Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Skive47%
×Draw25%
Odder28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skive
1.59
Odder
1.17

Skive creates 36% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 3 away

creates per match

Skive
1.19
Odder
1.00

allows per match

Skive
1.34
Odder
2.00

finishing

Skive+0.00on par
Odder+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skive ↓

Odder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Skive or draw
72%
Skive or Odder
75%
Draw or Odder
53%

Winning margin

Skive wins by 2+
24%
Odder wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Skive 1+ goals
80%
Skive 2+ goals
47%
Skive 3+ goals
21%
Odder 1+ goals
69%
Odder 2+ goals
33%
Odder 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Skive (draw refunded)
63%
Odder (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skive at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 80 matches

Odder away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skive attack 1.19 + Odder defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Odder attack 1.00 + Skive defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Skive scores more
47%
level
25%
Odder scores more
28%

Skive at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Skive will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Skive 3–2 Odder

Skive beat Odder 3-2 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 7, 2018.

The match was played at Hancock Arena in Skive.