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Skenderbeu Korce vs Kamza — Superliga 2018

Skenderbeu Korce
Skenderbeu Korce
FT
3 – 0
Kamza
Kamza
4/5/2019SuperligaSuperliga · Round 27Stadiumi Skënderbeu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Skenderbeu Korce58%
×Draw26%
Kamza16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skenderbeu Korce
1.52
Kamza
0.65

Skenderbeu Korce creates 134% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 18 away

creates per match

Skenderbeu Korce
1.11
Kamza
0.22

allows per match

Skenderbeu Korce
1.07
Kamza
1.94

finishing

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par
Kamza+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skenderbeu Korce ↓

Kamza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Skenderbeu Korce or draw
84%
Skenderbeu Korce or Kamza
74%
Draw or Kamza
42%

Winning margin

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+
31%
Kamza wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals
78%
Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals
45%
Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals
20%
Kamza 1+ goals
48%
Kamza 2+ goals
14%
Kamza 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)
79%
Kamza (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skenderbeu Korce at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.07 · 109 matches

Kamza away — creates 0.22, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skenderbeu Korce attack 1.11 + Kamza defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kamza attack 0.22 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Skenderbeu Korce scores more
58%
level
26%
Kamza scores more
16%

Skenderbeu Korce at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Skenderbeu Korce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Skenderbeu Korce 3–0 Kamza

Skenderbeu Korce beat Kamza 3-0 in Superliga on April 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Skënderbeu in Korçë.