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Kamza vs Skenderbeu Korce — Superliga 2018

Kamza
Kamza
FT
0 – 3
Skenderbeu Korce
Skenderbeu Korce
5/29/2019SuperligaSuperliga · Round 36Stadiumi Kamza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kamza26%
×Draw28%
Skenderbeu Korce46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamza
0.90
Skenderbeu Korce
1.30

Skenderbeu Korce creates 44% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 109 away

creates per match

Kamza
0.50
Skenderbeu Korce
0.89

allows per match

Kamza
1.72
Skenderbeu Korce
1.29

finishing

Kamza+0.00on par
Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamza ↓

Skenderbeu Korce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kamza or draw
54%
Kamza or Skenderbeu Korce
72%
Draw or Skenderbeu Korce
74%

Winning margin

Kamza wins by 2+
9%
Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kamza 1+ goals
59%
Kamza 2+ goals
23%
Kamza 3+ goals
6%
Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals
73%
Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals
37%
Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kamza (draw refunded)
36%
Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamza at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Skenderbeu Korce away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.29 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamza attack 0.50 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.90

Skenderbeu Korce attack 0.89 + Kamza defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kamza scores more
26%
level
28%
Skenderbeu Korce scores more
46%

Skenderbeu Korce at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Skenderbeu Korce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Kamza 0–3 Skenderbeu Korce

Skenderbeu Korce beat Kamza 3-0 in Superliga on May 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Kamza in Kamëz.