Skenderbeu Korce 2–2 Dinamo Tirana: Result & Stats

Skenderbeu Korce

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Dinamo Tirana

E. Rashica 33'

F. Çuçka 16'

L. Vila 54'

P. Itodo 14'

11/23/2024

Superliga · Round 14Stadiumi Skënderbeu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Skenderbeu Korce41%

×Draw29%

Dinamo Tirana30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Skenderbeu KorceExpected goals in this matchDinamo Tirana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.00

Skenderbeu Korce

1.21

Dinamo Tirana

1.00

Skenderbeu Korce creates 21% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 76 away

1.11

creates per match

0.93

1.07

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Skenderbeu Korce

1.11

Dinamo Tirana

0.93

allows per match

Skenderbeu Korce

1.07

Dinamo Tirana

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skenderbeu Korce ↓

Dinamo Tirana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Skenderbeu Korce or draw

70%

Skenderbeu Korce or Dinamo Tirana

71%

Draw or Dinamo Tirana

59%

Winning margin

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+

18%

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals

70%

Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals

34%

Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals

12%

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals

63%

Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals

26%

Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)

57%

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skenderbeu Korce at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.07 · 109 matches

Dinamo Tirana away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skenderbeu Korce attack 1.11 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Dinamo Tirana attack 0.93 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Skenderbeu Korce scores more

41%

level

29%

Dinamo Tirana scores more

30%

Skenderbeu Korce at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Skenderbeu Korce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

16'

33'

50'

54'

58'

59'

71'

74'

75'

75'

Yuri Merlim← Mario Rabiu

77'

J. Meksi

87'

E. Krasniqi← F. Kamleu

87'

Tiago Nani← L. Vila

Skenderbeu

Dinamo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Çuçka

Manager: I. Gvozdenović

50'▲K. Vangjeli←▼A. Doka

75'▲L. Balaj←▼F. Çuçka

75'▲Yuri Merlim←▼Mario Rabiu

87'▲E. Krasniqi←▼F. Kamleu

Skenderbeu Korce substitutes

VangjeliBalajMerlimKrasniqiTareNergutiRrokuShaqePecaniAbiodun

Manager: I. Daja

71'▲K. Gassama←▼A. Toli

74'▲A. Rufati←▼B. Maliqi

87'▲Tiago Nani←▼L. Vila

Dinamo Tirana substitutes

GassamaRufatiNaniDociEllaMiçoTeqjaQardakuGuci

Superliga: Skenderbeu Korce 2–2 Dinamo Tirana

Skenderbeu Korce and Dinamo Tirana drew 2-2 in Superliga on November 23, 2024.

Goals: P. Itodo (14'), F. Çuçka (16'), E. Rashica (33'), L. Vila (54').

The match was played at Stadiumi Skënderbeu in Korçë.

Skenderbeu Korce vs Dinamo Tirana — Superliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Superliga: Skenderbeu Korce 2–2 Dinamo Tirana