Dinamo Tirana 1–1 Skenderbeu Korce: Result & Stats

Dinamo Tirana

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Skenderbeu Korce

Lorran 85'

E. Rashica 77' (pen)

2/1/2025

Superliga · Round 23Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dinamo Tirana44%

×Draw29%

Skenderbeu Korce27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo TiranaExpected goals in this matchSkenderbeu Korce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.93

Dinamo Tirana

1.26

Skenderbeu Korce

0.93

Dinamo Tirana creates 35% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 55 away

1.21

creates per match

0.85

1.00

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Dinamo Tirana

1.21

Skenderbeu Korce

0.85

allows per match

Dinamo Tirana

1.00

Skenderbeu Korce

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tirana ↓

Skenderbeu Korce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Tirana or draw

73%

Dinamo Tirana or Skenderbeu Korce

71%

Draw or Skenderbeu Korce

56%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+

20%

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals

36%

Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals

13%

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals

61%

Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals

24%

Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)

62%

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tirana at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 73 matches

Skenderbeu Korce away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.31 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.21 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.26

Skenderbeu Korce attack 0.85 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dinamo Tirana scores more

44%

level

29%

Skenderbeu Korce scores more

27%

Dinamo Tirana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

56'

63'

67'

77'

E. RashicaPenalty

82'

82'

82'

85'

90+5'

90+1'

Dinamo

Skenderbeu

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: I. Daja

82'▲B. Maliqi←▼J. Meksi

82'▲F. Jonuzi←▼L. Vila

Dinamo Tirana substitutes

MaliqiJonuziRufatiDukaÇelkupaGuçiKiriMeça

Manager: E. Gjoka

67'▲A. Nikaj←▼Luquinhas

82'▲K. Vangjeli←▼A. Doka

90+1'▲F. Çuçka←▼L. Balaj

Skenderbeu Korce substitutes

NikajVangjeliÇuçkaJanaqiZenullariRrokuRamosDwumfourAbiodunMerlim

Superliga: Dinamo Tirana 1–1 Skenderbeu Korce

Dinamo Tirana and Skenderbeu Korce drew 1-1 in Superliga on February 1, 2025.

Goals: E. Rashica (77' pen), Lorran (85').

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.

Dinamo Tirana vs Skenderbeu Korce — Superliga 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Superliga: Dinamo Tirana 1–1 Skenderbeu Korce