Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Skenderbeu Korce vs Besëlidhja Lezhë — 1st Division 2019

Skenderbeu Korce
Skenderbeu Korce
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
10/23/20221st Division1st Division · Round 7Stadiumi Skënderbeu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Skenderbeu Korce60%
×Draw24%
Besëlidhja Lezhë16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skenderbeu Korce
1.72
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.77

Skenderbeu Korce creates 123% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 51 away

creates per match

Skenderbeu Korce
1.97
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.86

allows per match

Skenderbeu Korce
0.67
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.47

finishing

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par
Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skenderbeu Korce ↓

Besëlidhja Lezhë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Skenderbeu Korce or draw
84%
Skenderbeu Korce or Besëlidhja Lezhë
76%
Draw or Besëlidhja Lezhë
40%

Winning margin

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+
34%
Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals
82%
Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals
51%
Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals
25%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
54%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
18%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)
78%
Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skenderbeu Korce at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skenderbeu Korce attack 1.97 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.72

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 0.86 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Skenderbeu Korce scores more
60%
level
24%
Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
16%

Skenderbeu Korce at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Skenderbeu Korce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skenderbeu Korce vs Besëlidhja Lezhë

Skenderbeu Korce and Besëlidhja Lezhë drew 1-1 in 1st Division on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Skënderbeu in Korçë.