Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Skenderbeu Korce — 1st Division 2019

Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Skenderbeu Korce
Skenderbeu Korce
3/18/20231st Division1st Division · Round 20Stadiumi Besëlidhja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë33%
×Draw28%
Skenderbeu Korce39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.25

Skenderbeu Korce creates 13% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 29 away

creates per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.60
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21

allows per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.29
Skenderbeu Korce
0.62

finishing

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par
Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besëlidhja Lezhë ↓

Skenderbeu Korce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw
61%
Besëlidhja Lezhë or Skenderbeu Korce
72%
Draw or Skenderbeu Korce
67%

Winning margin

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
13%
Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
67%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
30%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
10%
Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals
71%
Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals
36%
Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
45%
Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besëlidhja Lezhë at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Skenderbeu Korce away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 1.60 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.11

Skenderbeu Korce attack 1.21 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
33%
level
28%
Skenderbeu Korce scores more
39%

Skenderbeu Korce at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Skenderbeu Korce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Besëlidhja Lezhë 0–0 Skenderbeu Korce

Besëlidhja Lezhë and Skenderbeu Korce drew 0-0 in 1st Division on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Besëlidhja in Lezhë.