Skenderbeu Korce 1–1 AF Elbasani: Result & Stats

Skenderbeu Korce

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

AF Elbasani

E. Prençi 18'

B. Lulaj 81'

8/19/2024

Superliga · Round 1Stadiumi Skënderbeu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Skenderbeu Korce37%

×Draw28%

AF Elbasani35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Skenderbeu KorceExpected goals in this matchAF Elbasani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.13

Skenderbeu Korce

1.17

AF Elbasani

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 37 away

1.11

creates per match

1.19

1.07

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Skenderbeu Korce

1.11

AF Elbasani

1.19

allows per match

Skenderbeu Korce

1.07

AF Elbasani

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

AF Elbasani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skenderbeu Korce ↓

AF Elbasani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Skenderbeu Korce or draw

65%

Skenderbeu Korce or AF Elbasani

72%

Draw or AF Elbasani

63%

Winning margin

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+

15%

AF Elbasani wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals

69%

Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals

33%

Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals

11%

AF Elbasani 1+ goals

68%

AF Elbasani 2+ goals

31%

AF Elbasani 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)

51%

AF Elbasani (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skenderbeu Korce at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.07 · 109 matches

AF Elbasani away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skenderbeu Korce attack 1.11 + AF Elbasani defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

AF Elbasani attack 1.19 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Skenderbeu Korce scores more

37%

level

28%

AF Elbasani scores more

35%

Skenderbeu Korce at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Skenderbeu Korce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

E. Prençi

35'

D. Janaqi

61'

E. Hasani← Léo Melo

71'

A. Gjoni← H. Qaqi

81'

87'

87'

88'

88'

R. Pecani← Yuri Merlim

Skenderbeu

AF

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: I. Gvozdenović

88'▲F. Çuçka←▼A. Nikaj

88'▲R. Pecani←▼Yuri Merlim

Skenderbeu Korce substitutes

ÇuçkaPecaniZenullariKamleuRrokuShaqeVásquezXhixho

Manager: R. Bordin

61'▲E. Hasani←▼Léo Melo

71'▲A. Gjoni←▼H. Qaqi

87'▲E. Halili←▼B. Greca

87'▲X. Lajthia←▼A. Hila

AF Elbasani substitutes

HasaniGjoniHaliliLajthiaBicaLleshiAzemovićGavaGegaZaimi