AF Elbasani 1–1 Skenderbeu Korce: Result & Stats

AF Elbasani

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Skenderbeu Korce

Zé Gomes 45+3'

E. Rashica 29'

10/26/2024

Superliga · Round 10Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

AF Elbasani45%

×Draw28%

Skenderbeu Korce26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AF ElbasaniExpected goals in this matchSkenderbeu Korce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.91

AF Elbasani

1.29

Skenderbeu Korce

0.91

AF Elbasani creates 42% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 109 away

1.29

creates per match

0.89

0.92

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

AF Elbasani

1.29

Skenderbeu Korce

0.89

allows per match

AF Elbasani

0.92

Skenderbeu Korce

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AF Elbasani+0.00on par

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AF Elbasani ↓

Skenderbeu Korce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

AF Elbasani or draw

74%

AF Elbasani or Skenderbeu Korce

72%

Draw or Skenderbeu Korce

55%

Winning margin

AF Elbasani wins by 2+

21%

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AF Elbasani 1+ goals

72%

AF Elbasani 2+ goals

37%

AF Elbasani 3+ goals

14%

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals

60%

Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals

23%

Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

AF Elbasani (draw refunded)

63%

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AF Elbasani at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Skenderbeu Korce away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.29 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AF Elbasani attack 1.29 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Skenderbeu Korce attack 0.89 + AF Elbasani defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AF Elbasani scores more

45%

level

28%

Skenderbeu Korce scores more

26%

AF Elbasani at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AF Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

21'

25'

29'

39'

39'

43'

43'

45'

45+3'

46'

62'

62'

66'

68'

70'

72'

77'

80'

E. Krasniqi← Yuri Merlim

82'

B. Charles

83'

A. Lleshi← B. Tsague

83'

X. Lajthia← K. Qose

AF

Skenderbeu

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: R. Bordin

62'▲A. Gjoni←▼R. Zaimi

62'▲A. Hila←▼Léo Melo

83'▲A. Lleshi←▼B. Tsague

83'▲X. Lajthia←▼K. Qose

AF Elbasani substitutes

GjoniHilaLleshiLajthiaGrecaAllaQaqiKasaTotoshiGava

Manager: I. Gvozdenović

25'▲K. Vangjeli←▼A. Doka

45'▲L. Vásquez←▼L. Balaj

80'▲E. Krasniqi←▼Yuri Merlim

Skenderbeu Korce substitutes

VangjeliVásquezKrasniqiTareÇuçkaNergutiRrokuShaqeRamosAbiodun