Skellefteå 5–3 Boden City: Result & Stats

Skellefteå

FT

5 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Boden City

F. Rhodin 74', 59'

A. Esmaili 56'

T. Lindfors 49'

F. Lundberg 28'

C. Ssejemba 90'

R. J. Schaap B. 86'

G. J. Kierindongo 80'

4/26/2025

Division 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 3Electrolux Home Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Skellefteå59%

×Draw20%

Boden City21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkellefteåExpected goals in this matchBoden City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.22

Skellefteå

2.16

Boden City

1.22

Skellefteå creates 77% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 12 away

2.24

creates per match

1.33

1.10

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Skellefteå

2.24

Boden City

1.33

allows per match

Skellefteå

1.10

Boden City

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skellefteå+0.00on par

Boden City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skellefteå ↓

Boden City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Skellefteå or draw

79%

Skellefteå or Boden City

80%

Draw or Boden City

41%

Winning margin

Skellefteå wins by 2+

36%

Boden City wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Skellefteå 1+ goals

88%

Skellefteå 2+ goals

63%

Skellefteå 3+ goals

36%

Boden City 1+ goals

70%

Boden City 2+ goals

34%

Boden City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Skellefteå (draw refunded)

74%

Boden City (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skellefteå at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.10 · 91 matches

Boden City away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skellefteå attack 2.24 + Boden City defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.16

Boden City attack 1.33 + Skellefteå defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Skellefteå scores more

59%

level

20%

Boden City scores more

21%

Skellefteå at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Skellefteå will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

49'

56'

59'

74'

80'

86'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff