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Boden City vs Skellefteå — Division 2 - Norrland 2019

Boden City
Boden City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Skellefteå
Skellefteå
6/1/2025Division 2 - NorrlandDivision 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 10Björknäsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Boden City23%
×Draw23%
Skellefteå54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boden City
1.10
Skellefteå
1.81

Skellefteå creates 65% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 90 away

creates per match

Boden City
1.17
Skellefteå
1.88

allows per match

Boden City
1.75
Skellefteå
1.04

finishing

Boden City+0.00on par
Skellefteå+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boden City ↓

Skellefteå →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Boden City or draw
46%
Boden City or Skellefteå
77%
Draw or Skellefteå
77%

Winning margin

Boden City wins by 2+
9%
Skellefteå wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Boden City 1+ goals
67%
Boden City 2+ goals
30%
Boden City 3+ goals
10%
Skellefteå 1+ goals
84%
Skellefteå 2+ goals
54%
Skellefteå 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Boden City (draw refunded)
30%
Skellefteå (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boden City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Skellefteå away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.04 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boden City attack 1.17 + Skellefteå defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Skellefteå attack 1.88 + Boden City defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Boden City scores more
23%
level
23%
Skellefteå scores more
54%

Skellefteå at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Skellefteå will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boden City vs Skellefteå

Skellefteå beat Boden City 1-0 in Division 2 - Norrland on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Björknäsvallen in Boden.