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Skeid II vs Follo — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Skeid II
Skeid II
FT
1 – 2
Follo
Follo
4/23/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 3Nordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skeid II32%
×Draw21%
Follo47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skeid II
1.73
Follo
2.12

Follo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

creates per match

Skeid II
2.55
Follo
2.54

allows per match

Skeid II
1.70
Follo
0.92

finishing

Skeid II+0.00on par
Follo+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skeid II ↓

Follo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Skeid II or draw
53%
Skeid II or Follo
79%
Draw or Follo
68%

Winning margin

Skeid II wins by 2+
16%
Follo wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Skeid II 1+ goals
82%
Skeid II 2+ goals
52%
Skeid II 3+ goals
25%
Follo 1+ goals
88%
Follo 2+ goals
62%
Follo 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Skeid II (draw refunded)
41%
Follo (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skeid II at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Follo away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skeid II attack 2.55 + Follo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.73

Follo attack 2.54 + Skeid II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Skeid II scores more
32%
level
21%
Follo scores more
47%

Follo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Follo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Skeid II 1–2 Follo

Follo beat Skeid II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Nordre Åsen kunstgress in Oslo.