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Follo vs Skeid II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Follo
Follo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Skeid II
Skeid II
9/18/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 20Ski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Follo71%
×Draw15%
Skeid II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Follo
3.00
Skeid II
1.31

Follo creates 129% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Follo
3.62
Skeid II
1.84

allows per match

Follo
0.77
Skeid II
2.37

finishing

Follo+0.00on par
Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Follo ↓

Skeid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Follo or draw
86%
Follo or Skeid II
85%
Draw or Skeid II
29%

Winning margin

Follo wins by 2+
51%
Skeid II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Follo 1+ goals
95%
Follo 2+ goals
79%
Follo 3+ goals
56%
Skeid II 1+ goals
73%
Skeid II 2+ goals
38%
Skeid II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Follo (draw refunded)
83%
Skeid II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Follo at home — creates 3.62, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Skeid II away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Follo attack 3.62 + Skeid II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 3.00

Skeid II attack 1.84 + Follo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Follo scores more
71%
level
15%
Skeid II scores more
14%

Follo at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Follo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Follo vs Skeid II

Follo beat Skeid II 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 18, 2023.

The match was played at Ski stadion in Ski.