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Skeid II vs Asker — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Skeid II
Skeid II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Asker
Asker
L. Fahre 19'
A. Jones 64'
K. Syvertsen 33'
9/8/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 20Nordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skeid II22%
×Draw18%
Asker60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skeid II
1.66
Asker
2.77

Asker creates 67% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Skeid II
1.85
Asker
3.00

allows per match

Skeid II
2.54
Asker
1.46

finishing

Skeid II+0.00on par
Asker+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skeid II ↓

Asker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Skeid II or draw
40%
Skeid II or Asker
82%
Draw or Asker
78%

Winning margin

Skeid II wins by 2+
10%
Asker wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Skeid II 1+ goals
81%
Skeid II 2+ goals
49%
Skeid II 3+ goals
23%
Asker 1+ goals
94%
Asker 2+ goals
76%
Asker 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Skeid II (draw refunded)
27%
Asker (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skeid II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Asker away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skeid II attack 1.85 + Asker defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.66

Asker attack 3.00 + Skeid II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Skeid II scores more
22%
level
18%
Asker scores more
60%

Asker at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Asker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
L. Fahre
33'
K. Syvertsen
64'
A. Jones

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skeid II vs Asker

Asker beat Skeid II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 8, 2024.

Goals: L. Fahre (19'), K. Syvertsen (33'), A. Jones (64').

The match was played at Nordre Åsen kunstgress in Oslo.