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Skeid II vs Asker — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Skeid II
Skeid II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Asker
Asker
E. Hjelde 20'
E. Kristiansen 25'
R. Sorter 19'
9/24/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 21Nordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skeid II52%
×Draw20%
Asker27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skeid II
2.23
Asker
1.58

Skeid II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

creates per match

Skeid II
2.55
Asker
1.46

allows per match

Skeid II
1.70
Asker
1.92

finishing

Skeid II+0.00on par
Asker+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skeid II ↓

Asker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Skeid II or draw
73%
Skeid II or Asker
80%
Draw or Asker
48%

Winning margin

Skeid II wins by 2+
31%
Asker wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Skeid II 1+ goals
89%
Skeid II 2+ goals
65%
Skeid II 3+ goals
38%
Asker 1+ goals
79%
Asker 2+ goals
47%
Asker 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Skeid II (draw refunded)
66%
Asker (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skeid II at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Asker away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skeid II attack 2.55 + Asker defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.23

Asker attack 1.46 + Skeid II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Skeid II scores more
52%
level
20%
Asker scores more
27%

Skeid II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Skeid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
R. Sorter
20'
E. Hjelde
25'
E. Kristiansen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Skeid II 1 – 2 Asker

Asker beat Skeid II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 24, 2023.

Goals: R. Sorter (19'), E. Hjelde (20'), E. Kristiansen (25').

The match was played at Nordre Åsen kunstgress in Oslo.