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Skaštice vs Nové Sady — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Skaštice
Skaštice
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Nové Sady
Nové Sady
11/9/20254. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 15Hřiště Skaštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Skaštice43%
×Draw22%
Nové Sady35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skaštice
1.92
Nové Sady
1.73

Skaštice creates 11% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 79 away

creates per match

Skaštice
1.72
Nové Sady
1.49

allows per match

Skaštice
1.96
Nové Sady
2.13

finishing

Skaštice+0.00on par
Nové Sady+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skaštice ↓

Nové Sady →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Skaštice or draw
65%
Skaštice or Nové Sady
78%
Draw or Nové Sady
57%

Winning margin

Skaštice wins by 2+
23%
Nové Sady wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Skaštice 1+ goals
85%
Skaštice 2+ goals
57%
Skaštice 3+ goals
30%
Nové Sady 1+ goals
82%
Nové Sady 2+ goals
52%
Nové Sady 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Skaštice (draw refunded)
55%
Nové Sady (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skaštice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.96 · 81 matches

Nové Sady away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skaštice attack 1.72 + Nové Sady defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.92

Nové Sady attack 1.49 + Skaštice defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Skaštice scores more
43%
level
22%
Nové Sady scores more
35%

Skaštice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Skaštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skaštice vs Nové Sady

Nové Sady beat Skaštice 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Hřiště Skaštice in Skaštice.