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Nové Sady vs Skaštice — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Nové Sady
Nové Sady
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Skaštice
Skaštice
3/16/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 17Stadion FK Nové Sady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Nové Sady49%
×Draw22%
Skaštice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Sady
1.89
Skaštice
1.38

Nové Sady creates 37% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 80 away

creates per match

Nové Sady
1.80
Skaštice
1.30

allows per match

Nové Sady
1.46
Skaštice
1.98

finishing

Nové Sady+0.00on par
Skaštice+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Sady ↓

Skaštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nové Sady or draw
72%
Nové Sady or Skaštice
78%
Draw or Skaštice
51%

Winning margin

Nové Sady wins by 2+
28%
Skaštice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nové Sady 1+ goals
85%
Nové Sady 2+ goals
56%
Nové Sady 3+ goals
29%
Skaštice 1+ goals
75%
Skaštice 2+ goals
40%
Skaštice 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Nové Sady (draw refunded)
64%
Skaštice (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Sady at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 82 matches

Skaštice away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.98 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Sady attack 1.80 + Skaštice defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.89

Skaštice attack 1.30 + Nové Sady defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nové Sady scores more
49%
level
22%
Skaštice scores more
28%

Nové Sady at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nové Sady will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nové Sady vs Skaštice

Nové Sady and Skaštice drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Nové Sady in Olomouc.