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Skaštice vs Kvasice — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Skaštice
Skaštice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kvasice
Kvasice
3/8/20254. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 16Hřiště Skaštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Skaštice44%
×Draw23%
Kvasice34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skaštice
1.79
Kvasice
1.55

Skaštice creates 15% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 14 away

creates per match

Skaštice
1.72
Kvasice
1.14

allows per match

Skaštice
1.96
Kvasice
1.86

finishing

Skaštice+0.00on par
Kvasice+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skaštice ↓

Kvasice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Skaštice or draw
66%
Skaštice or Kvasice
77%
Draw or Kvasice
56%

Winning margin

Skaštice wins by 2+
23%
Kvasice wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Skaštice 1+ goals
83%
Skaštice 2+ goals
53%
Skaštice 3+ goals
26%
Kvasice 1+ goals
79%
Kvasice 2+ goals
46%
Kvasice 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Skaštice (draw refunded)
56%
Kvasice (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skaštice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.96 · 81 matches

Kvasice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skaštice attack 1.72 + Kvasice defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kvasice attack 1.14 + Skaštice defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Skaštice scores more
44%
level
23%
Kvasice scores more
34%

Skaštice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Skaštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Skaštice 1–1 Kvasice

Skaštice and Kvasice drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie E on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Hřiště Skaštice in Skaštice.