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Kvasice vs Skaštice — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Kvasice
Kvasice
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Skaštice
Skaštice
8/3/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 1Stadion Kvasice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kvasice51%
×Draw21%
Skaštice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kvasice
2.06
Skaštice
1.47

Kvasice creates 40% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 80 away

creates per match

Kvasice
2.14
Skaštice
1.30

allows per match

Kvasice
1.64
Skaštice
1.98

finishing

Kvasice+0.00on par
Skaštice+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvasice ↓

Skaštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kvasice or draw
72%
Kvasice or Skaštice
79%
Draw or Skaštice
49%

Winning margin

Kvasice wins by 2+
30%
Skaštice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kvasice 1+ goals
87%
Kvasice 2+ goals
61%
Kvasice 3+ goals
34%
Skaštice 1+ goals
77%
Skaštice 2+ goals
43%
Skaštice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kvasice (draw refunded)
65%
Skaštice (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvasice at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Skaštice away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.98 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvasice attack 2.14 + Skaštice defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.06

Skaštice attack 1.30 + Kvasice defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kvasice scores more
51%
level
21%
Skaštice scores more
28%

Kvasice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kvasice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Kvasice 1–2 Skaštice

Skaštice beat Kvasice 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie E on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kvasice in Kvasice.