Skanste 1–1 JDFS Alberts: Result & Stats | Cup

Skanste

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

JDFS Alberts

6/20/2025

Cup · Play-off RoundHanzas vidusskolas laukums

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Skanste48%

×Draw20%

JDFS Alberts33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkansteExpected goals in this matchJDFS Alberts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

2.02

Skanste

2.44

JDFS Alberts

2.02

Skanste creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

3.67

creates per match

3.22

0.83

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Skanste

3.67

JDFS Alberts

3.22

allows per match

Skanste

0.83

JDFS Alberts

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skanste+0.00on par

JDFS Alberts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skanste ↓

JDFS Alberts →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Skanste or draw

67%

Skanste or JDFS Alberts

80%

Draw or JDFS Alberts

52%

Winning margin

Skanste wins by 2+

29%

JDFS Alberts wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Skanste 1+ goals

91%

Skanste 2+ goals

70%

Skanste 3+ goals

43%

JDFS Alberts 1+ goals

87%

JDFS Alberts 2+ goals

60%

JDFS Alberts 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Skanste (draw refunded)

59%

JDFS Alberts (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skanste at home — creates 3.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

JDFS Alberts away — creates 3.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skanste attack 3.67 + JDFS Alberts defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 2.44

JDFS Alberts attack 3.22 + Skanste defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Skanste scores more

48%

level

20%

JDFS Alberts scores more

33%

Skanste at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Skanste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff