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JDFS Alberts vs Skanste — 1. Liga 2026

JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Skanste
Skanste
9/14/20241. Liga1. Liga · Round 19Upesciems pilsētas stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

JDFS Alberts50%
×Draw23%
Skanste27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JDFS Alberts
1.83
Skanste
1.30

JDFS Alberts creates 41% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 58 away

creates per match

JDFS Alberts
2.10
Skanste
1.45

allows per match

JDFS Alberts
1.15
Skanste
1.57

finishing

JDFS Alberts+0.00on par
Skanste+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JDFS Alberts ↓

Skanste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

JDFS Alberts or draw
73%
JDFS Alberts or Skanste
77%
Draw or Skanste
50%

Winning margin

JDFS Alberts wins by 2+
28%
Skanste wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

JDFS Alberts 1+ goals
84%
JDFS Alberts 2+ goals
54%
JDFS Alberts 3+ goals
28%
Skanste 1+ goals
73%
Skanste 2+ goals
37%
Skanste 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

JDFS Alberts (draw refunded)
65%
Skanste (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JDFS Alberts at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.15 · 86 matches

Skanste away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.57 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JDFS Alberts attack 2.10 + Skanste defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.83

Skanste attack 1.45 + JDFS Alberts defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

JDFS Alberts scores more
50%
level
23%
Skanste scores more
27%

JDFS Alberts at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "JDFS Alberts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: JDFS Alberts 0–1 Skanste

Skanste beat JDFS Alberts 1-0 in 1. Liga on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Upesciems pilsētas stadions in Upesciems.