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Skånland vs Sarpsborg 08 II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Skånland
Skånland
FT
0 – 2
Sarpsborg 08 II
Sarpsborg 08 II
6/3/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 8Skånland kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Skånland46%
×Draw21%
Sarpsborg 08 II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skånland
2.05
Sarpsborg 08 II
1.71

Skånland creates 20% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

creates per match

Skånland
1.55
Sarpsborg 08 II
1.42

allows per match

Skånland
2.00
Sarpsborg 08 II
2.55

finishing

Skånland+0.00on par
Sarpsborg 08 II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skånland ↓

Sarpsborg 08 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Skånland or draw
67%
Skånland or Sarpsborg 08 II
79%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 II
54%

Winning margin

Skånland wins by 2+
26%
Sarpsborg 08 II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Skånland 1+ goals
87%
Skånland 2+ goals
61%
Skånland 3+ goals
33%
Sarpsborg 08 II 1+ goals
82%
Sarpsborg 08 II 2+ goals
51%
Sarpsborg 08 II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Skånland (draw refunded)
58%
Sarpsborg 08 II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skånland at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Sarpsborg 08 II away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skånland attack 1.55 + Sarpsborg 08 II defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.05

Sarpsborg 08 II attack 1.42 + Skånland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Skånland scores more
46%
level
21%
Sarpsborg 08 II scores more
33%

Skånland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Skånland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skånland vs Sarpsborg 08 II

Sarpsborg 08 II beat Skånland 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Skånland kunstgress in Evenskjer.