Sarpsborg 08 II 3–0 Skånland: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Skånland

9/30/2023

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 22Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 II56%

×Draw20%

Skånland24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 IIExpected goals in this matchSkånland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.44

Sarpsborg 08 II

2.29

Skånland

1.44

Sarpsborg 08 II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

1.74

creates per match

1.32

1.55

allows per match

2.84

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 II

1.74

Skånland

1.32

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 II

1.55

Skånland

2.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 II+0.00on par

Skånland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 II ↓

Skånland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 II or draw

76%

Sarpsborg 08 II or Skånland

80%

Draw or Skånland

44%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 II wins by 2+

35%

Skånland wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 II 1+ goals

90%

Sarpsborg 08 II 2+ goals

66%

Sarpsborg 08 II 3+ goals

40%

Skånland 1+ goals

76%

Skånland 2+ goals

42%

Skånland 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 II (draw refunded)

70%

Skånland (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Skånland away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 II attack 1.74 + Skånland defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.29

Skånland attack 1.32 + Sarpsborg 08 II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sarpsborg 08 II scores more

56%

level

20%

Skånland scores more

24%

Sarpsborg 08 II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff