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Skånland vs Lørenskog — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Skånland
Skånland
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Lørenskog
Lørenskog
10/8/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 23Skånland kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Skånland29%
×Draw21%
Lørenskog50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skånland
1.56
Lørenskog
2.12

Lørenskog creates 36% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

creates per match

Skånland
1.55
Lørenskog
2.23

allows per match

Skånland
2.00
Lørenskog
1.58

finishing

Skånland+0.00on par
Lørenskog+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skånland ↓

Lørenskog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Skånland or draw
50%
Skånland or Lørenskog
79%
Draw or Lørenskog
71%

Winning margin

Skånland wins by 2+
13%
Lørenskog wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Skånland 1+ goals
79%
Skånland 2+ goals
46%
Skånland 3+ goals
21%
Lørenskog 1+ goals
88%
Lørenskog 2+ goals
62%
Lørenskog 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Skånland (draw refunded)
36%
Lørenskog (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skånland at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Lørenskog away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skånland attack 1.55 + Lørenskog defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lørenskog attack 2.23 + Skånland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Skånland scores more
29%
level
21%
Lørenskog scores more
50%

Lørenskog at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lørenskog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skånland vs Lørenskog

Lørenskog beat Skånland 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Skånland kunstgress in Evenskjer.