Lørenskog 3–1 Skånland: Result & Stats

Lørenskog

FT

3 – 1

Skånland

5/1/2023

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 4Kurlandsparken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lørenskog74%

×Draw15%

Skånland12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LørenskogExpected goals in this matchSkånland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

1.10

Lørenskog

2.92

Skånland

1.10

Lørenskog creates 165% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

3.00

creates per match

1.32

0.88

allows per match

2.84

creates per match

Lørenskog

3.00

Skånland

1.32

allows per match

Lørenskog

0.88

Skånland

2.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lørenskog+0.00on par

Skånland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lørenskog ↓

Skånland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Lørenskog or draw

88%

Lørenskog or Skånland

85%

Draw or Skånland

26%

Winning margin

Lørenskog wins by 2+

54%

Skånland wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Lørenskog 1+ goals

94%

Lørenskog 2+ goals

78%

Lørenskog 3+ goals

55%

Skånland 1+ goals

67%

Skånland 2+ goals

30%

Skånland 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lørenskog (draw refunded)

86%

Skånland (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lørenskog at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Skånland away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lørenskog attack 3.00 + Skånland defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.92

Skånland attack 1.32 + Lørenskog defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Lørenskog scores more

74%

level

15%

Skånland scores more

12%

Lørenskog at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Lørenskog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff